Day 5 pick: Yankees under 96.5
The last of the over-unders: What to do with the Yankees. Two years ago their number was a ridiculous 101.5 after adding Randy Johnson in the offseason to a team that needed a dominant starting pitcher. Last year it was back down to a reasonable 97.5 and they just missed going over at 97 wins. This year they're at 96.5, but they are relative light years ahead of the next closest team on the list, Boston at 90.5. In fact, the Yankees and Red Sox are the only teams over 90 this year after six last season. That big gap gives me some pause.

(I know I have a much harder time making a pick for my team than Steve does with the Mets' hilariously low 87.5. Ah, the trials and tribulations of being a Yankees fan. Somehow I don't think Steve feels sorry for me, though.)

My heart tells me to go over, buy my gut and my brain tell me otherwise, so it's 2-1 in favor of: Yankees under 96.5.

After last year's embarrassing defeat to the Tigers, I wanted to see the Yankees go the route they did this offseason, even if it meant missing the playoffs for a year or two. They cleared some of the baggage (and postseason underachievement) from the roster by trading Johnson and Gary Sheffield. They may or may not have tried to trade Alex Rodriguez, too, but either way he's still here. But, like Meat Loaf said, two out of three ain't bad. So the chemistry will be better, but I don't know that more regular-season wins are in order because of it. However, more postseason wins might come the Yankees' way.

The lineup is still loaded, but it is one spot lighter on the All-Stars than in recent years. And the question marks in Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa give you reason to think the Yanks may not reach 97 again this year.

Look, I'm not predicting disaster here. I'm still saying the Bombers will win the AL East for the 10th straight year and will win 93-95 games. But 93-95 isn't 97, which is what you need to win on an over. So give me the under and another AL East pennant to put in the Yankee Stadium storage closet.

THE PICKS
Monday: T.J. picks Minnesota over 83.5; Steve picks Arizona over 77.5
Tuesday: T.J. picks Kansas City under 67; Steve picks Atlanta over 80.5
Wednesday: T.J. picks Texas over 82.5; Steve picks Cubs under 85.5
Thursday: T.J. picks Toronto under 86.5; Steve picks San Francisco over 81.5
Friday: T.J. picks Yankees under 96.5; Steve picks Mets ???