Day 1 pick: Minnesota over 83.5
Here's the first of the over-under picks Steve and I will be making this week. I'll be picking five AL teams (including the Yankees on Friday) and Steve will pick five NL teams (including the Mets on Friday) this week using the over-under numbers from the Las Vegas Hilton. Of course, this is just for entertainment purposes only. We'll keep monthly or quarterly tabs on them as the season goes along.

When I looked over the list this weekend, there were two that just jumped off the page at me as "have-to" plays. One is in the NL and I'll reserve comment on it until I see what Steve does. The other is the Minnesota Twins at over 83.5.

Minnesota's win totals the past six years, all under Ron Gardenhire, have been as follows: 85, 94, 90, 92, 83, 96. It's included four division titles and one appearance in the ALCS. And now they may have their best collection of offensive talent out of that entire run. Joe Mauer won the batting title last year and it sounds like he'll be back on the field Wednesday after being diagnosed with stress reaction in his left fibula. Justin Morneau won the AL MVP after driving in 130 runs last year. Michael Cuddyer drove in over 100 and Torii Hunter's offense is overshadowed by his spectacular defensive abilities (he drove in 98 runs last year). And Mauer and Morneau are young players who you would expect to show improvement.

The pitching is not as solid as last year with Francisco Liriano out for the season, but I only need to get this team to 84 wins, and with Johan Santana you can probably count on getting 20-22 right there, not to mention another five or six they'll win when he starts but doesn't get the decision. With a good bullpen, those numbers may be conservative.

How could this pick fall apart for me? First, the Twins are in what looks to be the deepest division in baseball, with three other teams (Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland) having serious to legitimate reasons to believe they're headed to the postseason. They can't all match their over-under numbers -- Detroit and Chicago at 86.5, Cleveland at 84.5 -- and there's a one-in-four chance that it's the Twins, but I'll bank on Minnesota's reputation of winning so far this decade. Another problem the division could create is one team running away with it all. Let's say Minnesota's sitting at 49-45 as the trade deadline approaches, but one of the other teams is 12-15 games in front of them. I'd like my chances of winning this play, unless ownership decides it needs to get something in return for Hunter before he leaves via free agency at year's end and is willing to sacrifice this season in order to get it.

I don't see that happening. I see Minnesota doing what it always seems to do of late -- winning somewhere around 90 ballgames.

THE PICKS
Monday: T.J. picks Minnesota over 83.5; Steve picks ?????
Tuesday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Wednesday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Thursday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????
Friday: T.J. picks ?????; Steve picks ?????